QPR v Hull: What do the stats tell us?

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Queens Park Rangers v Hull City - Barclays Premier League

A guy tweeted me the after the Hull game with some Opta stats that said I’d created more chances on the opening day than any other player in the Premier League. Obviously it was nice to hear that. We still lost 1-0 though, so in the end it was a bit of a pyrrhic victory. But it did get me thinking. Can the stats shed any light on how we lost a game I think we deserved to win? So I got the guys at Opta to send me some stats for the game, and I’ve pulled out a few interesting ones to discuss below.

 

Joey-QPR-HullCIty-Stats-Post

Stat 1: Queens Park Rangers conceded a joint-Championship-high 11 goals from corners last season. James Chester’s winner today was also from a corner situation.

We were well aware that we hadn’t performed well enough at set pieces last year, and that it was something we needed to look at for the start of this season. It’s definitely something we’ve worked on during preseason, we’ve switched to three at the back to give us more cover in the centre of defence, and the gaffer’s brought in Rio and Steven Caulker to strengthen the defence too. So I don’t see our ability to defend corners, or defend generally, as a problem for us this season. It was maybe just us adapting to a relatively new formation, and a decent header from James Chester.

Stat 2: Better possession

A team’s ability to dominate possession is usually a good indicator of their intent, their ability and their game management. We had a higher pass completion rate, we won more of our individual duals, we spent a lot more time in their half of the pitch and we enjoyed better possession, especially in the second half. And in the end that gave us a platform to play some good football, to dominate large parts of the game and create some decent chances for our forwards.

Stat 3: More attempts on goal

How many shots a team gets in is another good indicator of how well they’ve played in a game. Against Hull we had 19 to their 11, and I’d argue that we had the better chances too. Our wingbacks gave us a lot of width (we put in 35 crosses), while the players in the middle were able to create a fair few chances for the forwards. However, the biggest stat goes against us: they scored one of their chances, and we scored none.

There are no stats for luck

Pretty much every match report I’ve read says we deserved at least a draw, and points out that we created more chances and looked brighter and more threatening going forward. But at this level it’s all about making the most of the limited number of chances you get in a game. And we missed a few good ones, I could only hit the side netting from 20-odd yards out and Allan McGregor got down well to save Chaz’s penalty. And then, with one of their few decent chances, they grab a goal from a corner. As the gaffer said on the BBC, “Some days you get the breaks and some days you don’t”. Would be interesting to see a stat for bad luck eh?

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28 comments
Matthew1212
Matthew1212

The stats tell me that football is a funny old game, you can dominate a team and still lose. You can even be outclassed for 90 minutes by a world class side and somehow sneak a win. That's the magic of football, it's so unpredictable. A teams strength on paper means nothing until the final whistle.

mouldsie
mouldsie

Hope all the stats are exactly the same up at the KC........

Kingfisher
Kingfisher

It has been years since I could afford to travel up to London to support QPR in person. Last year I managed only the away game at Brighton, which we lost. Last Saturday's game was another rare appearance by me, and we lost again. Now I am starting to worry whether I am a jinx.. Perhaps this is another stat to worry about Joey! Come on you Rs!!

joeysuckshorsesoff
joeysuckshorsesoff

Dkelly85 because in life not everyone compliments you all if the time and blogs are read by people who may not like/respect people too. There's not a lot to like or respect about Joey Barton, if you've ever heard his history, in my opinion he shouldn't 've allowed to play in the UK! Never had a personal running but I know someone who has and let's just say once a foul cretin always a foul cretin. Stick to your horses Joey- they're full of sh*t too. Stat of the day, QPR PLAYED ONE LOST ONE- Joey Barton says it was just unlucky though! Massive surprise, no credit for a hull side who could have scored two and had a duff penalty decision given against them. Good luck this season qpr fans, your going to need it.

dkelly85
dkelly85

If you don't like Joey why are you wasting your time reading and commenting on his blog? 

UTTRob
UTTRob

Losing a game where you had the majority of the possession and attempts on goal doesn't show you were unlucky, just incompetent. If you want to talk about luck, you should look at the refereeing decisions for the 2 penalty appeals, which both went in QPR's favour. You got 1 that you shouldn't have, whereas Hull didn't get 1 they should. Even with this large slice of luck, you were incapable of scoring.


As for possession, you were at home for your first match back in the Premiership against bottom half opposition, and you could only manage 51%. Not what I would call impressive, and certainly not decisive.

dkelly85
dkelly85

I think you spent all your luck in the Play-off Finals when Zamora scored with the only shot on goal for QPR. 


Still - good chance of surviving the first year back in the Premiership.

Observer123
Observer123

Joey


I'm not sure you can really rely on the possession / attempts at goals statistics to show that QPR were the better side.


Hull scored in the 54th minute. From then on, they (naturally) would be less inclined to attack and create chances. If they had scored in the 88th minute rather than the 54th, no doubt their possession and chance creation stats would have been higher. As it turned out, they scored early (ish) and were happy to soak up a bit of pressure and ride the game out.


Unfortunately, retrospective analysis of the stats doesn't really add that much.

JoeyBartonisacock
JoeyBartonisacock

moan moan moan. Just think of how good you could be if you spent as much time training as you do shouting your bloody mouth off on social media and trying to pretend you're more intelligent than everyone knows you aren't.


QPR deserved to lose. They missed a penalty (which shouldn't have been anyway), they missed numerous other chances and then the one player who should probably be trusted to be able to mark a player at a corner lets them down. Ince should have made it 2-0 which would have been deserved.


I have nothing against QPR as a club, but you, 'arry and that idiot of a chairman make it very difficult to feel anything but joy when you lose. On a slight side note- why on earth would any club persist with Richard Dunne, he's a walking liability.


If you're going to try and use statistics, you can't use 'Duels won' and 'Duel success'. They're the same thing. Also, highlighting the 'Lost balls' on the QPR side just seems like you're trying to claim that as a positive.


If you were half the player you think you are, you'd be twice the player you you actually are.

PapaLarge
PapaLarge

Have to agree with Joey's analysis in the main.  Even looking at the detailed breakdown of the chance creation it seems fairly balanced in terms of those created in/outside the box, but with your two strikers getting 5 shots a piece you would expect at least one to go in.  


One area which the stats suggest could be improved is in the central midfield roles behind the strikers.  Mr Barton had statistically a pretty good game, particularly in terms of chance creation and Faurlin had a decent game defensively but less so offensively and in terms of pass accuracy.  Unfortunately Jordon Mutch seems to have struggled somewhat in terms of overall contribution.  Perseverance may pay dividends but personally I'd try Hoilett through the middle, with Barton and Faurlin sitting deeper.  Hoilett can then run at the opposition defence from deep and his distribution is generally good, this would also allow Remy and Austin to pull wide, stretching the defence and allowing Hoilett the room to run into.


Have a word with Harry and Glenn :) 

Lonenut
Lonenut

Maybe there should be a panel to decide which team was most deserving of every match. Taking into account stats such as number of Twitter followers, time on hands of players, demographic of fans and, of course, bad luck quotas. Then perhaps football could rid itself of these pesky people that gather around the pitch every match, shouting.

Aviqpr
Aviqpr

Conceding from a set-piece is terribly disturbing as it has been our weakness since we got promoted 3 years ago. This must change if we don't want to struggle the entire season and drop valuable points.


I really hope 'arry addresses the problem.


paulymps
paulymps

The only stat that counts.....You Lost 1-0

petersaxton
petersaxton

Being a Hull City fan I can accept both teams were not at their best because they were getting used to new players in their team. QPR were also getting used to a new formation. What about Andrew Robertson's debut at 20?


I'm amazed that teams don't work harder on set pieces. We don't seem to know what we are doing at throw ins. The number of poor corners in games is amazing. Free kicks on the edge of the area are important. I don't think we were good at having an effective wall at free kicks last season.


Austin's penalty was poor. He looked like he was trying to copy Huddlestone at Trencin. Player's should practice penalties until they have a repertoire of effective kicks. Most seem to act like they've never taken a penalty before.


Stephen Quinn was immense when he came on. He may be leaving because of lack of first team opportunity but he's shown he has a big part to play.


Matty Fryatt leaves because of lack of opportunity and then we sell Shane Long which would have given Matty a lot more time. I can't see that British strikers are value for money right now.


I think the main difference in the game was that Hull City really worked hard at closing QPR down. 


We are in a 13 club relegation league and margins are fine.

jartiger
jartiger

No mention of Tom Ince's  1 on 1 with the keeper which should have made it 0-2 and game over. How much possession, shots on target, and luck did you have against Derby in the play-off final? They battered you for 60 mins but you survived and won it in injury time. Be very interesting to see how you cope away from Loftus Rd with 30% possession in the Premier League.


@jartiger 

oierfano1
oierfano1

As I've been saying since long time ago, you are the footballer who has understood better social networking. This is amazing, great analysis, amazing way of communicating with the fans -and even the media, who can show this due to it's interesting content-, etc. As a QPR supporter -I was season ticket holder, but I'm spanish and I won't be back to London till 2017-, thanks for everything and keep on pushing, you are doing a great job. We lacked that fighting spirit two years ago. PD. You can find my tweets at @oierfano Cheers! U RSSSSSSS!!!

Whiterope
Whiterope

Goes to show that possession and stats don't win the game. Barcelona dominate possession, as did Liverpool in many games last year (I'm an LFC fan) but don't win all the games. Comes down to the 'moments of truth' like the corner for Hull and the missed Pen for QPR. Interesting read though.

Linesy
Linesy

Can we please work on corners even more this year?  Not only defending, but we've got an imposing team in the air this season and the delivery needs to beat the first man consistently.  Otherwise, I've never come away more happy from a defeat.  The MoTD "highlights" were a joke, I thought we were immense in the first half, Rio in particular!


bevan1987
bevan1987

@JoeyBartonisacock Maybe you could answer this slice of logic for me.

"QPR deserved to lose...they missed numerous chances..."

"Ince should have made it 2-0 which would have been deserved."

So you admit QPR had more chances, yet think Hull's second goal would have been deserved. Strange logic there. Surely if QPR created more chances, a second goal for Hull would have been against the run of play and some what...undeserved? Or, going by what you've said here, does that mean as QPR created more chances, QPR deserved to score 3 or more? Which is it?

LeicesterHoop
LeicesterHoop

@JoeyBartonisacock You're such an idiot it's unreal, the fact they had more chances (as you've said) indicates they were the more dangerous team. Richard Dunne, even though lacking pace and playing on his weaker side, still gave a top performance. Joey didn't highlight those stats, it's done automatically to show which team's is higher so him also using "Lost Balls" as a stat probably hints towards QPR being a bit wasteful/soppy.

Kingfisher
Kingfisher

@PapaLarge Agree with your analysis and would only add a few other points. Firstly, Joey Barton covered over 7 miles apparently on the pitch, which was the most for both of the teams I think, so his dissenters are wrong in saying he needs more training. Joey ran to take each of the many corners awarded to QPR, and he was the last (by far) to come in from the warm-up. Secondly, I felt the issue was not the back three but rather the interaction of the middle 5, particularly Danny Simpson until Snodgrass went off injured. Too many passes were backwards or across into risky areas, and the result seemed to be that the midfielders stayed too far back for a lot of the match. When a through ball was attempted there were almost always good movement both on and off the ball. Finally, I did feel that Hull were more 'match fit' than QPR, possibly as a result of the Europa qualifiers or better pre-season training matches.

bevan1987
bevan1987

@jartiger @jartiger To be fair to Joey, after the playoff final he quite happily admitted that QPR were lucky to win, and most QPR fans would agree. And as he has said here, it's all about who scores the most goals.

As for the Scott Sinclair chance - what about Remy's chance at the end where he hit is straight at the keeper from 12 yards (and should have scored)? Or our two shots cleared off the line? Or our penalty miss? At the end of the day I think most fans would say it was a pretty even game where maybe both sides deserved a point.

PapaLarge
PapaLarge

@Kingfisher @PapaLarge Interesting comments and I'd certainly agree that if this was really Hull's first game of the season then QPR would probably have sneaked a win, that extra competitive edge gained from the the Euro qualifiers shouldn't be dismissed at this very early stage. 

Linesy
Linesy

When did we sign Scott Sinclair?

bevan1987
bevan1987

@Linesy Apologies - I meant Tom Ince.

Just call me Andre Marriner.